As opposition forces advanced on the capital Damascus, the end of the Assad regime was swiftly declared. For Syrians, after 13 years of civil war and over 600.000 deaths, this is a clear win. In less than two weeks, five decades of brutal Assad family rule was swept away. President Bashar al-Assad’s regime ruled Syria ruthlessly with mass tortures and killings against its own people. People went on the streets and rightfully celebrated his downfall, but worries about Syria’s uncertain future arise.

Who liberated Syria?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army, Turkish-backed Syrian militias, form the rebels who entered Damascus and speedily toppled Assad. Founder and leader of the rebel group is Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has in the past been associated with al-Qa’ida in Syria, although he claims that since 2016, they broke off all ties.[1] The U.S. State Department offers a $10 million reward[2] for his seizure.

‘Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leads HTS, the dominant faction in the rebel alliance’, Photograph: Abdulaziz Ketaz/AFP/Getty Images, Guardian <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/explainer-main-actors-fall-of-regime-syria-rebel-alliance> [accessed 11 December 2024]

The rebel leader offers rewards in exchange of information about Assad’s officials. According to him, all those involved in torturing the Syrian people will be held accountable and escaped Assad loyalists will be searched for. Many of Assad’s officers are expected to flee to Europe.

The Commission for International Justice and Accountability (CIJA) has collected 1.3m pages of documentary evidence on the atrocities and crimes committed by the Assad regime. Since now the rebels have access to everything, these numbers are likely to grow. The CIJA also provides aid to find fugitives in Europe.

Hezbollah’s future

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has long been fighting off rebels in favour of former Syrian President Assad. Hezbollah has therefore been a key figure in protecting Assad’s rule and making sure the regime stays in place. Since Israel intensified its offensive against Lebanon, the group was unable to defend Assad as much as it did in the past. Therefore, the Syrian rebel victory inevitably poses a threat to Hezbollah.

‘Syrians living in Greece gather in Syntagma square after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, in Athens, Greece’, Photo by Louiza Vradi/Reuters, pbs, <https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/syrians-celebrate-end-of-assad-regime-with-jubilation-in-the-capital-and-outside-the-country> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Iran’s part in Syria

The “Axis of Resistance” is an informal coalition uniting states and armed groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis. For years, this was a defence strategy for Iran against US and Israeli power. With Assad overthrown, it is weakened. Since the 1979 revolution, Syria had relations with Shia-led Iran despite many Sunni-led Arab states disagreeing.  Syria is the only state involved in the Axis of Resistance, thus representing a key geographical connection that allows weapons and other supplies to be brought to Lebanese Hezbollah. With the rebels having taken over, the strategy is crucially threatened.

Assad’s fall may be a setback for Putin

Russia has also intervened in Syria and protected Assad from rebel forces in the past years. President Vladimir Putin has moulded a respectable reputation for himself in the Middle East and in order to prove his credibility, he must succeed both inside and outside of Russia. Repeatedly, he intervened in the Middle East and tried to “solve” issues. One of them being the military intervention that rescued Assad from advancing rebel forces in 2015. With HTS now in power, there are important Russian military bases in Syria which are now threatened. Should these bases be destroyed, Russia’s power in the Middle East could be compromised. Like many other persecuted people, Assad fled to Moscow with his family, seeking political asylum.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov referred to the rebel groups as ‘terrorists’. After the fall of Assad, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called them ‘Syrian opposition’[3]. The choice of words here plays a crucial role in determining Russia’s stance.

‘Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during their meeting in Moscow, July 24, 2024, indianexpress, <https://indianexpress.com/article/world/syrias-bashar-al-assad-is-in-russia-confirms-putins-deputy-foreign-minister-9718119/>  [accessed 11 December 2024]

Türkiye as a possible winner

Turkish President Erdoğan was in favour of the 2011 Arab Spring uprising against Assad’s rule. Some militant groups were also supported by Erdoğan. He may view Assad’s downfall as a means of solving the refugee problem in Türkiye. Moreover, stabilising the Kurdish zone would allow Erdoğan to make a move against them. The Kurds are however backed by the US, therefore Erdoğan would need to be careful. Not to mention that Shia Iran is a rival to Erdoğan’s Sunni views, a Sunni leader in Syria is consequently a win for Erdoğan.

‘Who controls what territory in Syria’, 9 December 2024, BBC, <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2ex7ek9pyeo> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Israel striking Syria

Israel struck Syria almost 500 times since Assad’s fall and continues to capture more territory. The Golan Heights, a territory separating Syria and Israel, was annexed by Israel and considered to be occupied Syria. France urges Israel to withdraw from the territory, as Israel’s military deployment there is a violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement.[4]

Regarding the Syrian people

Already multiple European states have paused or suspended Syrians’ asylum applications. Luxembourg and Germany are amongst them. While Syria’s future is still unclear, Austria started to prepare a ‘repatriation and deportation’ programme.[5] Certainly, Syrian refugees have been a delicate topic for over a decade. Over 6 million Syrians have become refugees or asylum-seekers. The largest population of Syrian refugees is in Türkiye with over 3 million Syrians.[6] As of March 2024, 16.7 million people are in dire need of humanitarian aid, with 90% of the Syrian population being below the poverty line, according to the UN Refugee Agency. Meanwhile, 12.9 million Syrians lack food and 7.2 million Syrians are displaced within Syria.[7]

‘Hydraulic press used to crush dead prisoners ad Saydnaya Prison near Damascus’, ABC, <https://abcnews.go.com/International/inside-notorious-saydnaya-prison-syria-reporters-notebook/story?id=116630140> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Over 135.000 people, including almost 4.000 children, were detained by the regime. The prisoners are still being released, some of them remain trapped hidden underground due to the complex way the Saydnaya prison is built. The notorious Saydnaya “slaughterhouse” is known for its torture and unspeakable violence. The possibility of discovering other secret prisons or detention cells is high.

‘People gather at the Sednaya prison in Damascus as Syrian rescuers search the jail, 9 December 2024. Photograph: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Images’ <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syria-fall-of-assad-regime-justice-atrocities-war-crimes-icc> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Undoubtedly, rebuilding the country and its political system will be a challenge due to the Assad family having been in power for decades. The lengthy process of change nonetheless is a long-awaited one which sheds hope on millions of Syrians who have endured immense cruelty under the Assad dictatorship. Amongst all the uncertainties that the future of Syria holds, there is one certitude: Syrians hope to live with dignity in their country.



Sources/References

Amnesty International

<https://saydnaya.amnesty.org/en/saydnaya.html> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Baker, Aryn, ‘How Many People Have Died in Syria’s Civil War?’, The New York Times, 11 December 2024

<https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-death-toll.html#:~:text=With%20the%20end%20of%20President,prewar%20population%20of%2022%20million> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Borger, Julian, and Harry Davies, ‘Syrian leader offers reward for details of Assad officials involved in war crimes‘, Guardian, 10 December 2024

<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syria-fall-of-assad-regime-justice-atrocities-war-crimes-icc> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Burke, Jason, ‘Who are the main actors in the fall of the regime in Syria?‘, Guardian, 9 December 2024

<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/explainer-main-actors-fall-of-regime-syria-rebel-alliance> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Graham, Thomas, ‘What Assad’s Fall Means for Russia in the Middle East‘, Council of Foreign Affairs, 10 December 2024

<https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/what-assads-fall-means-russia-middle-east> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Guardian staff, ‘Who are the Syrian rebels who have captured Damascus – explained in 30 seconds‘, Guardian, 8 December 2024 

<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/who-are-the-syrian-rebels-who-have-captured-damascus-explained-in-30-seconds> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Hoffman, Bruce, ‘Syria After Assad: What to Know About HTS, Hezbollah, and Iran‘, Council on Foreign Affairs, 9 December 2024

<https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/syria-after-assad-what-know-about-hts-hezbollah-and-iran> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Kassam, Ashifa, ‘UK and other European states suspend Syrians’ asylum applications‘, Guardian, 9 December 2024

<https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/dec/09/uk-and-other-european-states-suspend-syrians-asylum-applications> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Kliment, Alex, ‘Four reasons why Turkey is excited about the fall of Assad’, gzeromedia, 10 December 2024

<https://www.gzeromedia.com/middle-east/four-reasons-why-turkey-is-excited-about-the-fall-of-assad> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Le Monde with AFP, ‘France tells Israel to withdraw its forces from Syria buffer zone‘, Le Monde, 11 December 2024 

<https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/11/france-tells-israel-to-withdraw-its-forces-from-syria-buffer-zone_6735951_4.html> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Omer, Sevil, ‘Syrian refugee crisis: Facts, FAQs, and how to help’, 9 December 2024  

<https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts#:~:text=Turkey%3A%20Turkey%20alone%20hosts%20the,struggling%20to%20afford%20basic%20necessities> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Rewards for Justice

<https://rewardsforjustice.net/rewards/muhammad-al-jawlani/> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Speakman, Simon Cordall, ‘‘A blow to Putin’s prestige’: What al-Assad’s fall means for Russia’, Aljazeera, 10 December 2024

<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/a-blow-to-putins-prestige-what-al-assads-fall-means-for-russia> [accessed 11 December 2024]

Syria Refugee Crisis, 2024

<https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/syria/> [accessed 11 December 2024]


[1] Ashifa Kassam, ‘UK and other European states suspend Syrians’ asylum applications‘, Guardian, 9 December 2024 <https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/dec/09/uk-and-other-european-states-suspend-syrians-asylum-applications> [accessed 11 December 2024].

[2] Sevil Omer, ‘Syrian refugee crisis: Facts, FAQs, and how to help’, 9 December 2024  <https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts#:~:text=Turkey%3A%20Turkey%20alone%20hosts%20the,struggling%20to%20afford%20basic%20necessities> [accessed 11 December 2024].

[3] Syria Refugee Crisis, 2024 <https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/syria/> [accessed 11 December 2024].


[4] Le Monde with AFP, ‘France tells Israel to withdraw its forces from Syria buffer zone‘, Le Monde, 11 December 2024 <https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/11/france-tells-israel-to-withdraw-its-forces-from-syria-buffer-zone_6735951_4.html> [accessed 11 December 2024].


[5] Simon Speakman Cordall, ‘ ‘A blow to Putin’s prestige’: What al-Assad’s fall means for Russia’, Aljazeera, 10 December 2024 <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/a-blow-to-putins-prestige-what-al-assads-fall-means-for-russia> [accessed 11 December 2024].


[6] Bruce Hoffman, ‘Syria After Assad: What to Know About HTS, Hezbollah, and Iran‘, Council on Foreign Affairs, 9 December 2024,<https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/syria-after-assad-what-know-about-hts-hezbollah-and-iran> [accessed 11 December 2024].

[7] Rewards for Justice, <https://rewardsforjustice.net/rewards/muhammad-al-jawlani/> [accessed 11 December 2024].

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